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On the exact date Donald Trump was presented with a tailor-made "award for peace" from his newest friend, FIFA president "Johnny" Infantino, his government released an similarly flamboyant national security strategy. This relatively short paper is saturated with pure Trump and Trumpism. It begins with the characteristically modest assertion that the president has rescued "the United States and the globe – back from the brink of catastrophe and ruin."

Even though the document largely formalizes the ongoing policies and statements of Trump and his cabinet, it must be heeded as a serious caution for the world, and for the European continent specifically.

A Blueprint of Intervention and Cultural Anxiety

The document espouses an assertive form of foreign-policy meddling where the US explicitly sets the goal of "promoting European greatness." Its language could have been lifted directly from speeches by Viktor Orbán during the much-discussed refugee crisis of 2015-16: "Our desire is for Europe to stay European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence." Even more ominously, the document states that Europe's "economic decline is overshadowed by the real and starker prospect of civilizational erasure."

The entire section on Europe is imbued with decades of European far-right dogma and rhetoric. The EU and its migration policies are blamed for "changing the continent and creating conflict, suppression of free expression and suppression of dissent, plummeting birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence." Per the document, if "current trajectories continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and armed forces powerful enough to remain reliable allies." Indeed, the Trump administration believes that "within a few decades at the latest, some NATO members will become majority non-European."

"U.S. foreign policy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic commemorations of European nations’ individual character and history."

Core Theories of the Far Right

These arguments carry powerful echoes of two theories seen as core for contemporary right-wing circles. The first is Oswald Spengler's "The Decline of the West," whose argument on the inevitable fall of civilizations was used by the German far right to attack the "perversion" and "weakness" of the democratic Weimar Republic. The second is "The Great Replacement," published in 2011 by French novelist Renaud Camus, who transformed long-existing "indigenous" fears into a more explicit conspiratorial narrative, accusing European elites of using immigration to substitute rebellious "indigenous" populations and import a more docile and reliant electorate.

It is the nativist fever dream encapsulated in both ideas that grants the Trump administration the right, if not the duty, to interfere in European affairs, the document implies. And it is evident where it identifies its allies: "The United States encourages its political allies in Europe to advance this revival of spirit, and the increasing influence of nationalist European parties indeed gives cause for significant hope."

The Objective: "Restore European Greatness"

Put simply, the US contends that it is key to its national security to "Restore European strength," and that the European far right is the sole political force that can achieve this. Therefore, its "overarching strategy for Europe" prioritises "cultivating resistance to Europe’s present path within European nations" – meaning the far right – and "building up the robust nations of central, eastern, and southern Europe" – in particular "nations in agreement that want to restore their past glory" – a clear reference to Hungary and Italy.

While the document stays unclear on methods, it is apparent that a priority is to pressure Europe to adopt a sweeping policy on freedom of speech, more aligned with the US model – particularly regarding right-wing speech – and not limited to social media. Another is to normalise relations with Russia; or, as the document phrases it, to "restore strategic stability with Russia." Although the country is not explicitly called a future ally, the Trump administration clearly does not treat Russia as an adversary either.

A Historical Precedent: The Monroe Doctrine

In a wider context, the national security strategy draws its ideas less from the idealized US of the 1950s and more from the 1823 policy of 1823. Articulated by President James Monroe, this cautioned European powers not to interfere in the "western hemisphere," which he declared to be the US’s zone of influence. The Trump administration’s policy document vows to "implement a Trump addition" to the Monroe Doctrine, which involves the US "enlisting" countries worldwide that wish to help safeguard US national interests.

This is necessarily new – recall JD Vance’s address at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, where the vice-president launched an ideological attack on Europe’s democratic model. But maybe now that it is published in an official document, European leaders will at last realize that the stance is serious. And if the document is too long or vague for them, it can be condensed in plain and concise terms: the current US government holds that its national security is best served by the demise of liberal democracy in Europe. In other words, the US is not only an unwilling ally; it is a willing adversary. It is time to respond accordingly.