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At first, Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm position regarding Ukraine. After issuing threats of "serious ramifications" in August if Putin carried on blocking peace negotiations, he finally introduced substantial penalties on the Russian biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered Putin's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, reportedly drafted by US and Russian diplomats lacking Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's plan would in practice benefit the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", much of the initiative actually compromise that same independence. What represents a Russian ideal would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business background, Trump persists to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a basic territorial dispute, like giving Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the president. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a destroyed swath of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to weaken it so it no longer serves as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Giveaways

Although freezing in status the presently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been unable to seize in exceeding a decade of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian defenses dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear route to the capital should he later decide to renew the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Then, in a step that would make renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the proposal imposes no equivalent restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate government as extremists, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any radical doctrine and practices must be rejected and banned." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump places no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has broken equivalent agreements in the past – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a return of captured areas in the region to the government – how should anyone believe Russia now?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on external defense commitments. While the initiative promises a "decisive unified military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the details range from unclear to troubling. The plan would not just deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from rebuilding his weakened forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

World Concern

A separate side agreement apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. However in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's best deterrent against future invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, a response they have {not