Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The average count of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh administrative figures. However, security experts have advised that murder numbers could fail to indicate better countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had over these months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers urged caution that using murder statistics to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is especially true given the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the identical period last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for assessing the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to properly identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it may obscure periods when there were notably high numbers of murders.

“Employing the per-day average renders high peaks of violence invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to official figures. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

But despite these measures, Mexico remains plagued by high violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst concluded.